Why I think Kamala Harris Will Win the 2024 Election
If you’re reading this post on election day, please vote and help others to vote!
Otherwise, I’m writing today for a few reasons. One, to solidify and timestamp my thoughts on the 2024 election. Two, to give people a few more tools to understand the election results. Three, to help Democrats, progressives, Kamala Harris supporters and others have a little more confidence going into election night results.
I’ve broken up my supporting evidence into parts. The style is minimal commentary to give context and help readers understand the content presented. Enjoy!
Here’s my predicted 2024 election map. Hopefully this article will help explain why I think Kamala Harris will win the election.
- Polling
- The State of Polling Going Into Election Night
- Candidate Net Favorability
- Donald Trump Diminishing Support
- Some Problems with Polling in 2024
- Outlier Polls
- Previous Polling Misses
- Campaign Advantages
- Enthusiasm
- Donor Advantage
- Cash / Fundraising Advantage
- Ground Game Advantage
- Swing State Advertising and Budgets
- GOP Messaging / Anti-trans Advertising
- Crossover Support From Republicans
- The Electorate and Early Voting
- Early Voting – What Do We Know?
- Polls of People Who Have Already Voted
- Young Voters
- Reverse 2016 / 2020 2.0 / 2012 2.0